Algorithms

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Prediction of Percutaneous Coronary Intervention from Clinical and ECG Data Using Machine Learning: A Retrospective Single-Center Observational Study
(Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute, 2026-05-06)
Zhadyra N. Alimbayeva
;
Chingiz A. Alimbayev
;
Kassymbek Ozhikenov
;
Kairat Karibayev
;
Aiman K. Ozhikenova
The aim of this study was to evaluate the feasibility of predicting percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) based on clinical, laboratory, and electrocardiographic data available at various stages of hospitalization. A retrospective single-center study was conducted, including 137 patients with suspected coronary artery disease. The fact that PCI was performed during the current hospitalization was considered as the endpoint. Taking into account the temporary availability of data, three sets of signs were formed: basic (SAFE), including indicators available at admission; clinical (CLINICAL); and extended (EXTENDED), supplemented with glycemic parameters. Logistic regression, random forest, and gradient boosting were used to build the models. The assessment was carried out using repeated stratified cross-validation (5 × 10). The main metrics were ROC-AUC, PR-AUC, accuracy and F1-measure. The models demonstrated moderate predictive ability. The basic model (SAFE) showed a ROC-AUC of 0.734 ± 0.092, while the best results were achieved using an extended model based on a random forest (ROC-AUC 0.755 ± 0.079). The addition of glycemic parameters provided a moderate improvement in prediction quality. In the logistic regression, the most significant predictor was the presence of type 2 diabetes mellitus (OR = 7.36; p < 0.001). The results indicate the potential for using non-invasive data to assess the likelihood of PCI in the early stages of hospitalization. However, the models show moderate accuracy and require further validation on larger and more independent samples.
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Interpretable Machine Learning Approach for Diabetes Classification in Patients with Cardiovascular Disease
(Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute, 2026-07-04)
Chingiz A. Alimbayev
;
Zhadyra N. Alimbayeva
;
Kassymbek Ozhikenov
;
Kairat Karibayev
;
Zhanat Abuova
Diabetes mellitus is strongly associated with cardiovascular dysfunction and remains one of the leading contributors to morbidity and mortality worldwide. Early identification of diabetes-related cardiovascular alterations is essential for timely risk stratification and personalized clinical management. In the present study, an interpretable machine learning framework for diabetes classification in patients with cardiovascular disease was developed using routinely available clinical, biochemical, renal, and echocardiographic parameters. A retrospective dataset consisting of 131 cardiovascular patients was included in the final analysis, comprising 65 patients with diabetes mellitus and 66 patients without diabetes. Demographic, metabolic, renal, and cardiovascular variables, including age, body mass index (BMI), glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c), glucose concentration, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), troponin level, heart rate, and left ventricular ejection fraction (EF), were included in the analysis. Multiple supervised machine learning algorithms, including Logistic Regression, Support Vector Machine (SVM), Gradient Boosting, and Random Forest, were implemented and compared using repeated stratified cross-validation. Among the evaluated models, Random Forest demonstrated the highest classification performance, achieving a mean ROC AUC of 0.880 ± 0.050. Statistical analysis revealed significantly elevated HbA1c, glucose, and troponin levels together with reduced ejection fraction values in diabetic patients. Explainable artificial intelligence analysis using SHAP and partial dependence plots identified glucose concentration, HbA1c, age, and renal function as the dominant contributors to diabetes classification. Nonlinear relationships between metabolic and cardiovascular variables were additionally observed. The obtained findings demonstrate that interpretable machine learning approaches can provide effective discrimination between diabetic and non-diabetic cardiovascular patients while maintaining clinically meaningful interpretability. The proposed framework may contribute to future intelligent clinical decision-support systems and personalized cardiovascular risk assessment strategies.

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